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  • NKR
    04-15 10:16 PM
    The evidence is overwhelming. The housing will go down so much that there will be hard lessons learned. No one will talk about investing in housing for a long time. I want to buy a house too. I just don't think you pay whatever the inflated price is demanded and throw away my hard earned money. You pay what is worth. Why do you insist that everyone has to participate in this ponzi scheme and keep the price inflated? Housing should be affordable and come to sane levels and I believe it will.
    .


    Ok Dude, I will try just one last time, nobody is advocating buying a house when the market is bad. The question someone asked was is it ok to buy a house when I485 is pending, and the answer given was if he has found a very good deal, in a very good location and considering his situation if it is affordable then I485 should not be a hindrance. People who were still on H1 have bought a house when the market was good and they are doing well now. Some people who got GC might have bought a house just before the market came crashing down and they were plain unlucky. I myself bought a small affordable home when I had just my labor stage cleared. If when I bought this house the market was like this, I would not have bought but would have waited. Period.

    And for those who become nostalgic. I myself was bought up in a small house, it had only two rooms, I repeat, the whole house had just two rooms, nothing else. We had to share a toilet with 3 other houses of similar size, was I happy then?, Of course I was happy, I used to play cricket and other sports on the street with other kids with vehicles passing by once in a while. Is the situation same here?. No, but do kids here have other ways of having fun, oh yes. It doesn�t matter if the kid is living in an apartment or a house, all that matters is if he is having fun. Somebody came up with a strange logic that our love for our kids will diminish if we buy a house. If you have bought a decent, affordable house your love will not diminish, it will only manifold.

    I am not against renting, nor against people living in an apartment, I myself have lived in apartments before. I am against people who only want to save for god knows what, for people who are afraid to take small risks (for ex: buying a small home and not a mansion) when the market becomes good, they will ask you to prepare for the worst case scenario. They will say don�t buy a house because the sky will fall or don�t buy because the world will come to an end. Nothing is permanent here, not the job, not the location. You just have to take calculated risks. You just cannot console yourself saying you are from middle class and cannot do a thing, lift yourself up. If you want to buy a house but you are not doing it now because the market is bad, then I am not against you, so don�t jump on me.





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  • gc28262
    09-26 11:42 AM
    -DId cir have stem exemption? answer no
    -Did cir have visa recapture? answer no
    -Did cir increase the eb quota to reduce the backlog? answer no
    -Did cir exempt the existing EB applicants from the new "points based
    system", answer this seems to be a gray area, no clear answer (there is a
    debate about this)
    -Did cir have draconian restrictions on H1, answer yes
    if there are any more nagatives please add to the list.

    I think these provisions were included in CIR to get a bipartisan support from republicans. By including such anti-EB provisions in CIR, McCain, Ted Kennedy etc hoped to get some support from ant-immigrant republicans.

    Yes they were trying to save illegals at our expense :mad:
    With democrats in full control of both senate and house and a democratic president in the office, democrats would come up with a cleaner CIR ( beneficial to both legals and illegals )

    Remember president alone cannot do anything. Democrats are pro-immigrants. Maybe they lean a little bit towards FB.





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  • dpp
    05-16 12:07 PM
    No need to have Durbin's bill. Just ban Outsourcing, then all jobs will come back and everybody will be happy here in US.


    My view is not based on my personal gain or loss. My view is even if they ban consulting H1b numbers will not be reduced so much and cap will be reached. Number of permanent jobs will increase and they will hire H1b only when there is real shortage. Why do you think IEEE-USA members are undeserving and lazy just because they are interesting to put restrictions in H1b? Infact they are interested in more green cards. We are appreciating. Just because they are pointing out some problems in the program we cannot brand them as anti immigrants or lazy people. We ourself know that there are some issues in the program. While we were studying in the college it was big achivement if our research article comes into IEEE. So IEEE is considered as one of world best academic association.

    It is not TCS,Infy,Wipro is causing delay to GC. Infact I worked one of those companies and still they are one of best in India. Still I may work those companies if I go to India.

    If there is real shortage of skilled people then we will pass all the tests which are given in Durbin proposal and we can get H1b. What is the problem in accepting? Infact I am not supporting Ban of H1b on consulting but other than that everything can be fine and easily passed by most of H1b persons





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  • mariner5555
    04-22 03:48 PM
    this is what I had meant when I said that (for some people only) moving in to a very big house leads to lower standard on living. I repeat - this is only if you buy a big house beyond your means. this is from fortune
    ---
    Stay-at-home mom, 40, Apopka, Fla.
    We bought a home in Orlando, Fla., in February 2005, the height of the boom here. At the time, we could afford the home, the taxes and the insurance. It would be tight but we kept planning on "the bonus" or "the raise."

    We got all caught up in the "square footage" of the home. Well, what we didn't realize was that with our BIG HOUSE comes BIG EVERYTHING! Big taxes, big insurance, big water bills, big electric bills. The anxiety at the end of the month caused health problems for both my husband, Victor, and I.

    Last summer, we realized that we could not live like this any longer. We could not afford our home, we were prisoners of our mortgage. We couldn't enjoy life outside the house. We were literally trapped.

    We decided to "downsize" our life, our lifestyle and our home. It was a lot of soul searching but we both realized that it's not all about "square footage" or bedrooms or full baths. It's about being able to afford a mortgage (and all the add-ons) and still have money at the end of the month.

    Now, our timing could not be worse of course, for putting the big house on the market. We built a much smaller house, ranch style and I love it! My first electric bill was a third of what it used to be. Yes, we still have the big house, but we were able to rent it out and cover expenses.

    We are not making a dime on the rental, and when the market comes back, we will put it back up to sell. We wiped out Victor's 401(k) to pay off debt and put a down payment on the new house. We have established a savings account and there is actually money left over at the end of the month....whew!



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  • gimme_GC2006
    03-23 10:00 AM
    ok..People its been more than 6 months since some adventure in my case :D

    OK..today morning I got a call from a lady voice saying she is from Immigration services..

    The call ended by the time I realized my senses..here is the short story

    Immig: We are verifying your details and need from information to process
    Me: sure.

    Immig: WHo do you work for
    Me: Blah Blah employer

    Immig : Where do you work and who is your client
    Me: Blah Blah

    Immig: When did you first came to US. Where is Port of entry..
    Me: blah blah

    Immig: Do you have all of your IT contracts details.
    Me: COntracts? Since they are property of my employer..I dont have.

    Immig: We need to see your contracts with the clients..
    Me: hmm...I can try but I dont know if I can get them

    Immig: Well...It will help process your application..How fast we can process depends on how fast you can get those..
    Me: OK..I will try..

    Immig: Give me your email..I will drop in email with all info..you can reply back with copy of contracts
    Me: Ok..blah..blah email

    Immig: I need All phone numbers and all supervisors of all clients you worked with in US
    Me: I gave all of the details..told her that I cannot vouch for the validity of phone numbers or emails, as I dont know if they work for the same company

    Immig: Ok..done..I will send email..
    Me: thank you


    I this power play, I forgot to tell her that I already went through interview in aug08 and officer found everything correct. :confused:
    Nevertheles..does anyone know what this is all about?
    Why would they need this kind of information..I am not worried as such since I was never on bench or anything and have all LCAs all blah blah details.

    Just curious :confused::confused:





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  • mariner5555
    04-15 04:18 PM
    I just want to list the difference in your home purchase decision when you have GC vs. you are in H1B/EAD.

    GC - You can splurge a little. Even if you have to move, you are almost certain that you are able to move within the US, or will be able to come back to the US. You will get better interest rates on a mortgage and a higher percentage of financing (upto 97%). You can buy your dream home (this usually means a nice community, big house etc. etc.) Even if the value of your purchase comes down, you can afford to wait for a longer period of time.

    H1/EAD - Think 10 times before purchasing a home. Take a conservative approach. If you think you can really afford a $400,000 house, purchase only a $350,000 house. Prepare to pay around 8% down-payment (some times even 20%) and you may not get the best interest rate. Plan very well for the possibility that you may have to move within the US or even out of the country. And prepare some plans considering that you may have to go out of the US and may not be able to come back. Consider the possibility of renting a town home or a single family home. In this market, you can even find homes by paying a rent which could be some times lower than the mortgage on the home. I agree with what h1tech has said ..and that is good advice. I guess there is enough info on this thread and hopefully people will take right decisions (so I will stop for the time being). btw ..nobody said bigger house is not better if everything else is constant .. maybe people are misreading things.
    and I guess inspite of all these arguments ..people will rush to buy ..which is good too ..as it helps the economy.. ( I guess some like to shoot themselves in the foot ..).
    http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080415/foreclosure_rates.html
    note - ARMS will reset in may / june (the batch that is referred below) ..which means many of these will foreclose in early 2009.
    -----
    The onslaught of homes facing foreclosures has yet to ebb, a research report showed Tuesday, with bank repossessions skyrocketing last month as more troubled homeowners mailed in their keys and walked away.

    And the worst isn't over: the wave of adjustable-rate loans resetting to higher rates will crest in May and June. And that's expected to push more homeowners into default and foreclosure in the third and fourth quarters of this year, according to RealtyTrac Inc. of Irvine, Calif.

    "Once we're through that batch of loans, the worst will have been worked through the system," said Rick Sharga, RealtyTrac's vice president of marketing.
    He estimates between 750,000 and 1 million bank-owned properties will hit the market this year, or about a quarter of the homes up for sale. In some areas, these properties will continue to slow sales and depress prices further.
    ----------



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  • xyzgc
    12-31 01:29 AM
    Dear xyzgc,

    As a fellow Indian I understand your anger about India's inaction. In no way India can match America.

    Look which countries America attacked after 9/11 ?. Hopeless Afganistan and throughly beaten Iraq. These countries are no match for America.
    America can attack half way from the globe and attack other unequally matched countries. Do you think US will attack Russia or China like Afganistan? It will think thousand times because of sure mutual destruction it will bring. Now Israel is thrashing Hamas which is not at all a regular army.
    Do you think Israel will touch Iran ? Iran will torch Israel.

    So, it is the kind of measuring the capacity of the enemy and acting accordingly.

    If India attacks Pakistan, Pak will surely use their Bramastra which is atom bomb.India again retaliates with another 10 atom bombs and full Pakistan and half India will be in ashes. Do you want that ?

    Again , this kind of massacre may happen in future . Who knows ?. But, I am sure we can't hit Pak like America.

    I am also thinking in line with Alisa's . To avoid castration from US army , these Taliban kind of people send some misguided youths to attack, thereby diverting the issue and diverting the Pak army to India border.

    The only way to solve this problem is the self realisation of Pakistan . Terrorism is like a double edged sword. It will harm both parties.

    " Unless the thief understand and realizes his misdeeds , nobody can destroy theft " - Famous Tamil poet Pattukotai Kalyanasundaram.

    Pakistan is no Iran and India is no Israel. Pakistani cowards will not use Bramastra. They know it will bring their own destruction. These people are such cowards they won't even fight a regular open war, because they know they cannot win - it took them 4 wars to realize that. Where is the question of Bramastra?
    The best they will do is to keep biting and nibbling our flesh by sending in the terrorists and these are the very terrorists we must attempt to root out.

    I would have ordinarily appreciated the lines you quoted from Tamil poetry. I am very fond of poetry myself although I don't understand Tamil.
    But there is a big difference between small time theft and terrorism and the same idea can't be extended to it.
    And do you think we should continue to invite terrorists, while we wait for degraded, corrupt Pakistani dictators to attain self-realization?

    Amma, I know you have excellent values and this is a very nice quote, but these values won't curb terrorism. Gandhi was a saint but the entire world is not a saint.
    These mass-murdering islamic hordes, this floating sewage-crap, need to be wiped out. Nothing else will work.





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  • senthil1
    04-08 07:28 PM
    Finally anti immigrants will make the immigrants to fight to keep atleast whatever they have it now. If we want EB reform we may have to accept some H1b restrictions. Otherwise get ready for status quo and wait years and years to get gc with same H1b mess as this year. If you ask liberal H1b and liberal GC then you may not get anything. I will be surprised if Strive bill passes without meaningfull H1b reform. The situation is completely different from 1999 or 2000. If they bring multiple anti immigrant bills then everything may be dropped. Best way is to introduce that 50% of hires should be US workers. That will be best bet and that will not have any impact on current H1b holders


    Hi pitha,

    Thanks for posting this info. Could you please share the source of this information?

    None of us should take this bill lightly. There is a saying - "one should never watch sausage or law being made". The guys who vote on the bills, in most instances, don't actually know what they are voting on. Most lawmakers may vote in favor of this bill as the anti-lobby is warpping this bill around a message "this bill is to enhance protections for American workers, so are you going to vote against American workers?" As such most lawmakers could vote in favor of this bill. The current environment is very dangerous where most people watch news in the sound-bites and half of the Senate is running for President. In such an environment, if you ask Obama, Hilary, Dodd, McCain etc., they are all likely to vote in favor of this bill, without going into the nuances and actual implications of this bill. None of these guys would want to be headlines saying something like �Obama is against American Works�. No one will actually care to look at the long term implication of such a bill whereby most of the IT jobs will be outsourced.

    From tomorrow, we should all email and inform everybody that we can, including our employers. What is the direction from IV core? We are all waiting for the matching orders��.



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  • hopefulgc
    08-11 04:35 PM
    what a loser a person has to be to give out red dots for jokes.

    i am here to counter the trends of red dots :)

    I also got a red dot for my joke:confused:. Never used any foul language. Comment left was "This type of "blonde jokes" or "sardar jokes" etc are not really suited for a skilled immigrant community forum." I don't understand why do people give Red dots even for jokes. The title of the theread is Ligthen Up.





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  • logiclife
    04-07 01:06 PM
    The law makers (democrats) who introduced this so called law to reform H1 are actually trying to kill H1 in the name of reform. They don’t have the backbone to come out and say H1 should be abolished but instead they are taking the back door to kill the H1 through these draconian measures.

    You hit the nail in the head.

    Instead of getting rid of all H1B employees in one full swoop, this lobby wants to put law in place where new H1s will be mostly rejected due the "Consulting clause" and existing H1 employees will be hit in the head with a 2 X 4 when renewing H1, since the scrutiny and paperwork is the same for new H1, H1 extensions and H1 transfers. Same LCA filing, same I-129 forms.

    So instead of immediate purge, this is like getting rid of 5 to 10 thousand each month by making extensions and renewals and transfer impossible for those doing the consulting.

    Like the admin said, this is the slow bleed of H1B program where death is slow but not obvious and easily detectable.



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  • gc28262
    12-22 05:43 PM
    On the other hand if some one is attacking me in my home and/or hurting my family or freinds, I have full rights to defend and call for justice to prosecute the attacker, in this case declaring Pakistan a terrorist country.

    So you don't consider Kashmir as part of your home. Majority of Indians think Kashmir is part of India.

    Where does the boundary of your little world end? I know the boundary starts with you. How big is that world ?

    It is so enlightening to learn that you care for people other than yourself.





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  • amsgc
    08-25 10:21 PM
    .



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  • pitha
    04-08 10:04 PM
    Could not agree with you more on this. They have systematically targeted people of particular races. This is nothing but high tech lynching. If these people are against H1 just come out a say that. But these hypocrites don�t have the balls to say that so they are targeting a particular race.

    Imagine telling an Indian or Chinese doctor to treat only Indian and Chinese patients and not anybody else. That�s what this law is essentially doing to technology consultants. You can only work within the company but cannot do consulting. But if you are an American citizen you can do consulting, body shopping etc but you cannot do that with H1!!!!.

    I didn�t have much of an opinion regarding a path to citizenship to illegals, I could not understand why Kennedy was spoiling the whole CIR by stressing on path to citizenship for illegals. Now I understand exactly why Kennedy and some others stress about path to citizenship for illegals. They don�t want the illegals to go through these same gotchas that they are trying to put us h1's through. Kennedy knows that unless the illegals are given a path to citizenship they will be constantly exploited like we are.

    The people who are sponsoring this law are xenophobes masquerading as h1 reformers. Of all the groups who claim they are trying to reform h1 you can easily weed out the pretenders and the real ones. The only real one is IEEE-USA They know H1b is necessary but don�t agree with some exploitation going on with the system. So the IEEE-USA made some of these proposals
    1. Give green cards to US educated students directly instead of H1
    2. Delink H1 from employers which will make them more mobile and not subjected to exploitation by employers.

    Now IEEE-USA was truly interested in reforming H1 that why they made the above proposals. Now these xenophobes who proposed this draconian law did not include any of these proposals, why? Because there objective is not to reform H1 but to throw us out and kill h1 based on an excuse called reforming h1. If they were really interested in reforming h1 they would have included the above proposals in the bill.

    This bill will pass one way or the other. The only solution for us would be 485 without priority date. But do we have the will and more importantly the resources to pull that off. Other than the personal effort of the core team and 200 odd contributing members who do we have to count on. People atleast now contribute, even before we could take one step forward we have been pushed 2 steps backward. As logiclife has said its no longer just about green card our very own existence is being eliminated. Please contribute atleast now for your own good.



    So all said and done, we may now go down based on a racially motivated bill. I am not sure what it takes to educate the law makers, I would like to see the senior personnel at IV and more analysts to look into what can be done on this bill.





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  • alisa
    01-03 02:36 PM
    Tomorrow the Bombay attack is old too.
    You are right. And so it is imperative that before that happens, the perpetrators and their handlers are hunted down, exposed and punished, in a credible and transparent manner.
    Pakistanis should want to know who is trying to provoke India, and risking a war in the subcontinent, and why.


    You are so good at giving advice to people who suffered at your country men's(like don't start war etc) hands and yet you don't own any responsibility.
    What apology?
    I am not responsible for the actions of those people. Imagine if after 9/11, an American asked you to apologize for the actions of the 19 'Brown men' (I am assuming here that you are a south asian male) who killed 3000 Americans, how silly do you think that situation would be. If cockroaches from my house take a dump in your kitchen, don't ask me to apologize for that.



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  • nojoke
    04-16 12:03 PM
    hi NKR,
    if you went for a townhome and you are happy then it is fine. I am sure you are a smart person and the main point is that you are happy where you are.
    personally I am looking for a bigger place in alpharetta (where prices did go up a lot and is coming down ..websites show that there are foreclosures and my view is that I will find better deals in a year or so). at the same time I am happy with my decision and am having a great time.
    I was giving examples of some of my friends who rushed to buy. atleast 2 of them are repenting now (since they bought it far away at v.high prices) ..and one of them is about to sell it after staying there for a year.
    the point that nojoke and myself were making is that speculators (and careless people - those who could not afford but bought it, realtors, brokers etc etc) have pushed the prices to bubble territory. things are going to get much worse before it becomes better in most locations. there is no doubt about this. The other reason that I (and I guess nojoke) posted so many links was in good faith. i.e. we didn't want the hardworking immigrant to throw his/her money in a rush. this would only help the speculators and the other irresponsible speculators.
    let me make one last point since this is immi / GC forum. I was trying to get more support for the idea to have a plan B (and I failed ..which is fine since I may get GC soon and I have a plan B for myself).
    I agree (And hope) that IV has a good plan A (writing to senators, fasting , flowers etc) ..what I tried to say was that we should work on plan B (and maybe plan C too). if I was a core IV member then at the very least plan B would have meant ..meeting (or emailing - wherever and whenever it is legal) realtors, brokers or even senators etc etc ...and in turn use their lobby to lobby for our cause. if all the IV members were to do this at their local level --then who knows ..this may work. it is certainly worth trying.
    from what I have read builders are big contributors to congress ..

    I have debated this with myself. I don't know if this is practical. How many of us are there who wants to buy a house? 500K at the most? For the first 3 months alone, this year, there are 500K foreclosures. I know every bit helps. But the problem is not that there are not people to buy. The price is too high. We probably can influence the local realtors. Just go to them and then back off saying that you are uncomfortable buying without green card. If a lot of us does that, the message will go up and maybe they will talk to law makers. Realtors are desperate...
    I don't know how we execute this.





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  • Macaca
    12-21 05:34 PM
    Polls Aside, Bush Ends Year With Victories (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119819850269643697.html) By John D. McKinnon | Wall Street Journal, Dec 21, 2007

    WASHINGTON -- President Bush is ending the year with the approval of just one in three voters, according to the Wall Street Journal/NBC poll, but he is enjoying a string of legislative successes in Congress, on matters from Iraq-war funding and the federal budget to energy policy, tax increases and mortgage relief.

    Bush aides believe they benefited from overreaching by Democrats flush with their 2006 election victory. The White House began the year by laying out relatively modest goals on issues like energy and federal spending. They clung to those goals, even as some Republicans in Congress wavered. White House officials wagered that voters care about concrete results and ultimately would blame Congress, not the White House, if results failed to appear. That made their hard-line negotiating more effective as the year wore on.

    Democrats became more eager to reach accords on issues such as energy after the Thanksgiving break, administration officials said. Meanwhile, with each victory -- on war funding, on foreign- intelligence wiretapping and on the proposed expansion of a children's health-insurance program -- Republicans on Capitol Hill gained more confidence.

    "I leave the year feeling good about our capacity to get some important things done," Mr. Bush said yesterday at a news conference.

    Meeting with reporters this week, Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Democrats might have raised expectations too high in their attempts to cut off Iraq-war funding. Some top Democrats said they were surprised Mr. Bush refused to cave in and negotiate a deal on children's health.

    Democrats rejected comparisons with the Republican Congress of 1995, which famously overreached in its clashes with the Clinton administration. Democrats also dismissed the White House view that Mr. Bush's determination helped congressional Republicans regain their political footing.

    "Here's the problem: When people say they want a change, the reference point is from George Bush," said Rep. Rahm Emanuel, the House Democratic caucus chairman and a top party strategist. "And now the Republicans have decided to get closer in the photo [to] George Bush. I will pay their cab fare every day for them to go to the White House to do that. I'll rent the bus so the whole caucus can go."

    White House aides said they are developing contingency plans for next year, aimed at shoring up the economy, if necessary, and perhaps at sweetening voters' sour mood about their finances. The nature and extent of administration proposals depend in part on whether the economy weakens as some experts predict, but two possible prescriptions could include new health-care proposals and Mr. Bush's trademark tax cuts.

    The president said his administration will "consider all options" to stimulate the economy. He urged Wall Street banks to record all losses relating to the housing crisis immediately. To tighten wasteful government spending, he said his administration would consider options for overriding some congressional "earmarks."

    Democrats say many Republican successes resulted not from the popularity of their positions but from the high procedural barriers to passing legislation in the Senate. Majority Leader Harry Reid's office this week sent out a list of 62 procedural votes that Republicans had forced in the Senate, contending it is a record.

    Democrats say they enacted five of their six major initiatives, including raising the minimum wage; passing energy legislation; enacting recommendations of the 9/11 commission; helping make college costs more affordable; and opening up stem-cell research. Mr. Bush vetoed the stem-cell bill, but the rest became law.

    While Democrats made big concessions on their spending totals, they say they realigned priorities within those limits. They also say the children's health issue will haunt the White House in the summer when states start to run out of money. And Ms. Pelosi said Democrats would be "relentless" next year in seeking to hold the administration accountable on Iraq.


    Sentiment Aside, Bush Scores Wins (http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2007/12/21/sentiment-aside-bush-scores-wins/) By John D. McKinnon | WSJ Blog, December 21, 2007



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  • thakurrajiv
    04-06 09:12 AM
    :eek:

    I have been reading this thread with a lot of interest and could not hold back from commenting on the unbridled optimism many of you guys are showing towards the housing market, which reminds me of the "long tailed" euphoria that followed long after the NASDAQ had crashed over 50% in 2001 after the tech bubble, and people kept wishing it would come back long after it became clear to most cynical observers that it would take decades to achieve the same levels as before (and it hasn't yet)...

    Housing has not yet bottomed. It still has a long way to go. You guys may think that the foreclosures related to subprime resets have subsided so the market may recover. You haven't seen anything yet. Consider:

    http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/04/loan-matrix.jpg

    and:

    http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/04/adjustable-rate-mortgage-reset-schedule.jpg

    Option ARMs (adjustable rate mortgages) and Alt-A ARMs are the next two shoes to drop. In case you've had your head buried in the sand, the economy is on verge of a collapse. Unemployment is soaring and many more companies are considering layoffs. Many economic observers are opining that we are already in recession.

    Desi junta, and others, I entreat you readers to please consider this seriously in your house purchase decisions. If for some reason you need to sell and move out, at a minimum you will be saving some money (by not losing your downpayment, for example) by choosing to rent. Rent a house/townhouse from a private owner if you are tired of renting an apartment and have growing kids - it's a "renters market" in the private rental marketplace right now with so many investment properties purchased during the housing bubble available for rent.

    I would like to offer up a few blogs, whose commentators should be taken seriously. I recommend you read and bookmark the following blogs if you want to follow the housing market and the economy:

    http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/

    http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/

    http://housingpanic.blogspot.com/

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

    I like this website for people just starting out to get more financially educated (in an entertaining way):

    http://www.minyanville.com/

    Good luck and please be careful before 'taking the plunge!'

    very good post jung.lee. As you said lay offs have not even started !! Recent 80000 job loss data came in. This is givt data which is a lot worse than expected. Imagine the real job losses !!
    For me this is beginning of end !! Things will get real now. House prices will come in line with what people can afford .....





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  • Better_Days
    12-28 03:28 AM
    Since more than a few hours have past since this thread was started, I can think that we can sleep in peace knowing that there won't be a war.

    Having said that, I am startled at the number of Indians who seem to be sold on the idea that war is the answer. I went over to an Indian friend of mine and was shocked at the type of coverage. It seemed so much like the US media before the Iraq invasion.

    Exactly what will India accomplish by squandering away the economic clout it has gathered? Yes India is a regional power and probably an emerging global power. Yes, in a long drawn out conflict, Indian will probably win. Happy now? But at what price? PLEASE, Indian is no US and Pakistan in no Iraq.


    Pak has nukes, but their delivery mechanism is not sound and before Pak launches any nukes, US will disarm them and even if a few are launched India had a very good anti missile shield which will intercept and destroy all warheads before it enters Indian air.


    What I need to know is that what %age of Indian population believes this and the whole "Chinese-made" nuke crap? Is it being spewed out on TV by arm-chair generals and defense analyst? This will explain why everyone is sold on the whole War idea. And this after the debacle that US finds itself in Iraq and Afghanistan?

    Does anyone understand the concept of a nuclear doctrine? I have been out of it for a while and I don't think that Pakistan has published its nuclear doctrine but it has been speculated upon. The general consensus is that, at least initially, Pakistan will use the nukes on its own territory. Both as a means to inflict casualties on advancing Indian troops and as a means of area denial as neither army is equipped to fight large scale battles in a NBC (Nuclear, Biological, Chemical) theater. Forget Pakistan but do you have any idea what the fallout do to the fertile agricultural land in India? And this is not even considering that the Pakistani leadership may decide to go down in a blaze of glory and launch strategic strikes against major population centers.

    War is no answer and should not (and probably will not) happen.

    Disclaimer: I am a Pakistani. While I am in IT, at one point in time I was considering a career in Strategic Studies and was serious enough that I started applying at various colleges. Had to drop the idea as I could not secure funding.





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  • file485
    07-08 05:41 PM
    thanks UN..

    a sense of relief after seeing your posts...

    any prediction for the Oct bulletin for Eb2/Eb3 India...?





    ssa
    06-25 02:17 PM
    Remember the biggest speculation we have had in recent history was in real estate from 2002 to 2007. That's the primary reason we are all in this mess. So if anyone is speculator it's the new homeowner who bought house between 2002 to 2007, definitely not the renter. I for one am very glad I sat out the whole crazy real estate hysteria during the time. I'm not underwater! Those who bought during the peak around 2005/2006 will have to wait a long time before they can even break even.

    Your second point of buying 3-4 homes with 20% down each and building equity on rent is the classic strategy to head into multiple foreclosures at once. This was the exact thinking that got so many real estate speculators in deep whole. Show me a single major city that has good amount of jobs (Bay area/Boston/Seattle) and where the monthly rent covers the monthly mortgage payment+property tax+home insurance. If that were the case there would not have been all these foreclosures, they would just give their houses on rent!

    Finally as for missing on the lowest interest rates, interest rates will generally move in somewhat opposite direction to house prices. That is because when the interest rate is high there will be less buyers which will drive the prices down. So barring lucky few you can only lock in either low interest rate or low house prices. Choice here is clear: you can always re-finance when the interest rates go down next time but you can never re-negotiate your house purchase price so you should always aim for getting a low price rather than low interest rate.

    Owning a home is never a bad idea but paying unreasonable price for it is indeed a bad one. It's like asking if owning a Google stock is bad idea. It sounds like a legitimate question but in reality is an absurd one because it leaves out the most important detail. At what price? Price is everything!

    All you and the renters here are doing is speculating. Speculators, from my experience, always buy and sell at the wrong time because all they do is guess. Even if prices do go lower in 2011, speculators will speculate that it will go down further and continue to hold off then miss their chance. Same problem with now in 2009, you missed the low interest rates and who knows when they will come back down to the 4s again. Personally I hope they do come back, cuz I missed a chance to refi one of my properties. You are not only losing your rent money to a landlord, but you are also losing valuable time that you could've used to knock off your mortgage.

    As for only putting 20% down and people saying that they want to buy their homes outright– they are idiots. You never pay full price or more than 50% for a home, even if you can afford it. Pay the downpayment, then invest the rest of that money elsewhere and build even more from that money. That is called leverage and thats what good smart investors do. They use the system, they leverage their money and NEVER pay full price. If you have $800,000 and want to buy an $800,000 3 family house, u dont use all ur money on it to pay it all in one shot. You buy 3 or 4 of them, paying 20% down then rent it out, use the rent money to pay the mortgage hold and sell after 20-30 years. Use the rest of the money and invest that in a portfolio or start a business. After 30 years all your properties will be paid off by renters like the people here. You can sell them, give them to your kids, whatever. But don't tell me you're not coming out ahead.

    And for the people that are proud to have more than 1 car and paid it all off– a car is not an investment. Unless you buy an antique that you can sell for more than what you paid for, it is not comparable to owning a home. I have a car, it degraded in value the minute i drove it off the lot. Its great for vacations, going around, getting to work whatever. But I am not proud to own a degrading liability even when its been fully paid 5 years after I bought it with no chance of increasing its value.

    I have no problems with renters like you or others in this forum. I make money from you. I don't care if you terminate your lease early because another renter will take your place. All renters do is throw away their money and will never get it back. I will use your rent money to pay my mortgage. But don't try to tell me that owning a home is a bad idea. Owning your own home is NEVER a bad idea and 68% of America agrees. You will ALWAYS need a place to live in.





    Macaca
    12-28 07:51 PM
    Examining the Maoist Resurgence in Andhra (http://idsa.in/idsacomments/ExaminingtheMaoistResurgenceinAndhra_umukherjee_28 1210) By Uddipan Mukherjee | Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses

    If two recent events are compared, then they would ostensibly appear to be disconnected. Nevertheless, they ought to evoke considerable interest because of the actual linkage between them. The first is Swaranjit Sen, former Director General of Police (DGP) of Andhra Pradesh, is to be anointed as the vice-chancellor of the troubled Osmania University, which of late has been a hotbed of Telangana agitation. His appointment would be a historic occasion since for the first time an Indian Police Service (IPS) officer will be a vice-chancellor in the state.1 Second, the Maoists called for a bandh in the Andhra-Orissa border area on December 22. Their agenda was to protest against the killing of five of their comrades in an encounter by the elite Andhra Greyhounds personnel at Cheruvuru near Korukonda in Chintapalli mandal.2 These two events represent different facets of the Maoist movement in Andhra. And the connection is manifested when it is remembered that Sen is known in the state for his ‘hard line’ image against the Maoists.

    On one hand, Sen’s appointment shows that the police force in Andhra commands significant confidence among the political leadership. That is why an IPS officer has been entrusted with task of sorting out a trouble-torn university. For instance, media reports say that the Andhra government has, in principle, approved a suggestion by Governor Narasimhan to nominate senior Indian Administrative Service (IAS) or IPS officers to head the three strife-torn universities of Osmania, Kakatiya and Andhra.3

    On the other hand, these events also portray the fact that the Maoists are trying their best to reclaim lost territories. Hence, a more severe skirmish is in the offing in Andhra Pradesh. In fact, the Maoists have a grandiose plan to create ‘liberated zones’ in the state.4 Moreover, it is not at all unlikely that the left-wing ultras are not aiding and abetting the Telangana movement and would continue to do so in future through their frontal student and other mass organisations.

    To corroborate, quite recently, the Telangana Praja Front (TFP) was floated by Maoist sympathiser and balladeer Gaddar. Reportedly, he has demanded that the central government honour its commitment by immediately tabling a bill in parliament for the formation of Telangana.5 Gaddar’s actions, though in the garb of democracy, needs to be conceived as a covert move of the insurgents. Moreover, when some Telangana groups have already warned of a 'bloodbath' if the Sri Krishna Commission makes no recommendation for the formation of Telangana state by December 31 2010, the inherent liaison between these militant pro-Telangana groups and the Maoists simply cannot be rejected outright.

    Against this backdrop, Gaddar’s TFP, acting as an open party to subvert the democratic processes of the state, is basically what the outlawed outfit wants or rather badly needs. It is a natural tactical belief of the Maoists that overt military acts in the Andhra-Orissa border region can be effectively compounded with mass agitations around Hyderabad to weaken the existing political structures of Andhra Pradesh. Moreover, when the issue is as emotive as Telangana, the rebels do have a solid ground from which to launch their tactics.

    There is another reason to believe that the ongoing agitation for a separate Telangana state may have a Maoist ‘hand’. There are allegations of extortion against Telangana activists which seem to follow the ‘extortion regime’ of the Naxalite movement in Andhra.6 Pro-Telangana activists believe that taking donations to propel the movement forward is a reasonable step. However, Lok Satta Party president Jayaprakash Narayan asserted in the state assembly that there is heavy extortion involved in the Telangana movement. Furthermore, there have been allegations that local leaders were collecting huge amounts to the tune of Rs. 10,000 to 20,000 from businessmen, government employees, contractors and others to conduct even cultural programmes.7 This is quite interesting considering the fact that this is a standard modus-operandi of the Maoists to garner finances.

    Operating from their headquarters at Abujhmar in Chattisgarh, the Maoists are essaying into other states. Most importantly, along with the historically rebel-dominated district of Srikakulam, the districts of Vizianagram, Vishakhapatnam, East Godavari and Khammam are the disturbed areas of Andhra Pradesh. Khammam shares a long border with Chhattisgarh whereas the other districts are contiguous with Orissa.

    The Maoists are now celebrating the 10th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Liberation Guerrilla Army (PLGA) and hence have taken up a month-long recruitment drive in the states of Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Chattishgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar and West Bengal. Their party spokesperson Gudsa Usendi and Dandakaranya special zone military commission in-charge Sudhakar said that the 10th anniversary of the PLGA, which began on December 2, will continue till January 2, 2011. They proclaimed that during the period, revolutionary propaganda, processions, meetings and rallies would be conducted in every village.8

    The Maoists had been physically driven out from Andhra from a law and order point of view almost five to six years back. But in June 2008 at Balimela reservoir in Malkangiri district of Andhra-Orissa boarder, the elite greyhounds suffered casualties at the hands of the Maoists.9 That could be interpreted as the ‘come back’ event for the latter in Andhra. And the present surge in militancy is in sync with that. Additionally, since the Maoists are losing ground in other states, they need to regain their lost forte in their old backyard so as to have an edge in the psychological war with the Indian state.

    In addition, it is quite disturbing for the Maoists not to have a mass base in Andhra since most of their top leadership hail from the very region. Hence, they are trying to cash in on major issues to extract maximum dissatisfaction of the masses towards the political system. Telangana is one such. Along with it, it seems natural that the Maoists may focus on the issue of suicide of farmers too in the foreseeable future through their frontal organisations.

    In this regard, the porous border with Orissa is a major cause of concern for the Andhra authorities. The ultras have bases in the Malkangiri, Koraput and Rayagada districts of Orissa that adjoin the Andhra border. There are no border check posts except on the highway and main roads. Furthermore, on both sides of the border the same Kondh tribals live who provide the mass base for the ultras.

    The Andhra government might have won the first phase of the civil war with the Maoists. But the renewed violence in the area portends ominous signals for the future. A far more dangerous future situation was reflected by an opinion poll published by the Times of India on September 28 201010. According to it, a clear 58 per cent of the populace (who were polled) in the Maoist-dominant areas of Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Orissa said that Naxalism had actually been good for their area. In Andhra, Khammam was one of the districts where the poll was conducted. Four districts of the Telangana region – Adilabad, Nizamabad, Karimnagar, Warangal – were also chosen.

    Probably the vital aspect of ‘winning the hearts and minds’ of the people in counterinsurgency is yet to be accomplished by the Andhra authorities. And the continued failure to do so would have serious ramifications in the long run.

    “Swaranjit may be first IPS to be Osmania VC (http://www.deccanchronicle.com/hyderabad/swaranjit-may-be-first-ips-be-osmania-vc-983),” December 19, 2010,
    “Maoist bandh in AOB region tomorrow (http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/hyderabad/Maoist-bandh-in-AOB-region-tomorrow/articleshow/7135743.cms),” TNN, December 21, 2010,
    “Maoist-hunter top cop to be Osmania University V-C (http://www.deccanherald.com/content/121994/maoist-hunter-top-cop-osmania.html),” December 19, 2010, DHNS,
    G. Siva, “Maoists plan janata sarkar in AOB (http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/hyderabad/Maoists-plan-janata-sarkar-in-AOB/articleshow/7068037.cms),” TNN, December 9, 2010,
    “Telangana groups observe 1st anniversary of centre’s announcement (http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/politics/telangana-groups-observe-1st-anniversary-of-centres-announcement_100471551.html),” IANS, December 8, 2010,
    “T activists following extortion line of Naxals? (http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/hyderabad/T-activists-following-extortion-line-of-Naxals/articleshow/7147670.cms),” TNN, December 23, 2010,
    ibid.
    “Maoists on a major recruitment drive (http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/hyderabad/Maoists-on-a-major-recruitment-drive/articleshow/7108340.cms),” TNN, December 16, 2010,
    Santosh K. Agarwal, “Maoist Insurgents Hit Back Greyhound Commandos Killing 35 (http://www.groundreport.com/Arts_and_Culture/Maoist-Hit-Back-Greyhound-Commandos-Killing-35/2864225),” Alarm Bells, July 01, 2008,
    “58% in AP say Naxalism is good, finds TOI poll (http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com//india/58-in-AP-say-Naxalism-is-good-finds-TOI-poll/articleshow/6639631.cms),” TNN, September 28, 2010,



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